Day 204 of the Russian invasion

Day 204 of the renewed Russian invasion of Ukraine

• Day 204 of the renewed Russian invasion of Ukraine
• Belarus:
• Kyiv/ Central Ukraine (1):
• Sumy/Chernihiv (2):
• Kharkiv City (3):
• Kupyansk/E Kharkiv:
• Izyum/Lyman (4)
• Siversk/Lysychansk (5)
• Bakhmut:
• Donetsk (6):
• Mariupol (7):
• Zaporizhia/Southern Axis (8):
• Kherson (9):
• Odesa/Black Sea/Crimea(10):
• Azerbaijan/Armenia:
• General:

UA has stated that there may be an increased risk of attack on civilian infrastructure from the 17th to the 20th, including false flag attacks in RU-occupied areas. People have been urged to refrain from visiting public places in occupied regions during these days. The allegation is that RU will conduct actions while using UA uniforms and symbols to discredit the UA armed forces and cause panic.

Per Zelensky, Russia has fired over 3800 missiles into Ukraine since the war began. Russia is believed to have used most of its existing missile stockpile and reportedly has decided to use Ukraine as a "functional disposal" site for older munitions that no longer serve their purpose.

Approximately a week ago, it was reported that RU had less than 200 Iskandar ground-launched ballistic missiles left. It was also reported that S-300 missiles are very antiquated, dating back more than 30 years ago, numbering more than 6,000 in number. Their ineffective capabilities after such time and poor maintenance may explain the number of S-300 strikes on UA targets and their indiscriminate usage.

The SBU reported that the Ukrainian Orthodox Church, which broadly followed the dogma of the Russian Orthodox Church (in contrast to the Orthodox Church of Ukraine, which is divorced from RU influence) might be used as a hotbed to recruit RU assets and by the FSB. While maintaining that the UA government does not intend to violate religious freedoms, they drew reference to some past events of radicalization and clashes that arose from more conservative members of the UOC after the war began and separations were made with the ROC.

Sumy/Chernihiv (2):

Harassing strikes continued over the day, with no other major changes in this region.

Kharkiv City (3):

RU troops shelled into N Kharkiv oblast on some of their recently abandoned positions. However, the fire intensity onto Kharkiv city proper has decreased significantly due to RU forces retreating further away.

Ukraine apparently shelled an RU customs processing station/checkpoint in Russia right across the border from N Kharkiv oblast in Nekhoteevka, about 1 km into Russia. The building caught fire and was apparently destroyed, while Russia claimed no causalities.

The Mayor of Kharkiv announced that while the city continues to restore infrastructure damaged by RU shelling, there are some 400 buildings that are too damaged to rebuild.

Overnight, RU forces launched more missiles into Kharkiv city.

Kupyansk/E Kharkiv:

UA troops generally hunkered down for yet another day under RU shelling in Kupyansk as RU forces continued to pound UA positions on the W side of the Oskil river. UA responded with artillery

RU forces destroyed the main gas distributor in Balakliya before retreating, leaving some 5000 people without heat. UA is working to restore municipal infrastructure in the recently liberated territories.

RU telegram channels continue to claim UA is fighting on both sides of the Oskil near Borova.

RU disbanded 2 DPR/LPR regiments of approximately 2000 troops at full capacity due to losses sustained thus far in the war and cemented by the recent UA offensive in Kharkiv. There has been a repurposing of civilian hospitals in Russia towards use as military treatment centers, including taking over a children's hospital to deal with casualties.

Izyum/Lyman (4)

A mass grave containing at least 440 bodies of UA soldiers and civilians were found in the forests outside Izyum. RU forces had previously posted a video from this site before, and thus UA was looking out for its location.

It is believed there is a registry of bodies buried here, given that some graves have crosses and inscriptions on them, and some even have wreaths, indicating knowledge of the deceased's identity. While the bodies are due to be exhumed and investigated by forensic experts, most deaths are believed to have come from or shortly after Russia heavily shelled the city during its April capture.

UA is working to restore transit connections and highway operations to Kupyansk, Izyum, and Balakliya. However, there is still the risk of mines currently. The first train from Kharkiv to Balakliya left today.

The SBU is currently working to find and detain pro-RU collaborators in the liberated territories.

Many teenagers that were being held by RU forces in basements were located and freed today.

UA continues to assault Lyman and Yampil, with both cities reinforced by RU forces and being contested. UA forces NW of Syvatohirsk have further advanced towards Sosnove on the N side of the Siversky Donets, under heavy RU artillery fire, which further puts pressure on the area to the W of Lyman

Siversk/Lysychansk (5)

RU forces continue to shell into the Siversk region and reportedly attacked the SE around Spirne. There continue to be rumors of UA forces operating to the E of Siversk proper and reinforcing bridgeheads across the Siversky Donets river to bring more troops to bear on Lyman.

There were reportedly deep strikes on some RU positions NE of Severodonetsk.

Bakhmut:

Fighting continues in Soledar, with Ru forces being pushed broadly back into a small industrial area. Additional RU helicopter strikes were seen here today in conjunction with RU assaults.

In Bakhmut proper, shelling continues at a diminished pace. There are reports of UA reinforcements in this area.

To the south of Bakhmut near Kodama, RU forces are pushing up towards the UA strongpoint of Zaitseve from the south and menacing it from the East.

Donetsk (6):

RU and UA continue to skirmish along the front lines near Donetsk, with reports that there are RU supply shortages for troops rotating here from the Izyum region. Apparently, the abandonment of considerable equipment in E Kharkiv is already being felt.

RU forces launched an unsuccessful assault out towards the area NW of the Donetsk airport, directed towards a long-held UA defensive strongpoint.

Reportedly DPR/LPR conscripts are being further deployed outside of their originally recruited areas, causing protests.

RU is moving troops that retreated from the E Kharkiv front to defenses in the Donetsk and Zaporizhia regions.

Mariupol (7):

The situation remains grim in Mariupol. There is not predicted to be enough heating infrastructure to make the city generally livable over the winter. Residents went to a rally due to the lack of water and electricity today, the second protest on such issues.

UA Paramedic "Tyra,” who managed to smuggle footage out of Mariupol hidden in a tampon with a microSD card before she was captured during the Battle of Mariupol, testified before the US Helsinki Commission. Her testimony addressed the war crimes she experienced in captivity.

Pregnant prisoners, their fate unknown to their relatives and the state. A fighter was beaten for three hours and then thrown into the basement like a sack. A dead child in his mother's arms. A seven-year-old boy with bullet wounds is dying in my arms because I couldn't save him this time. Prisoners in their cells scream and die of torture for weeks without any medical help. Airstrikes on hospitals and residential quarters. A hospital full of wounded soldiers and civilians, where anesthetics and antibiotics have run out. Soldiers and all medical personnel sleep two to three hours a day because operations are carried out one after another. Hospitals ran out of beds, and medivacs arrived every 5 to 10 minutes. The wounded and the dead lie on top of each other. Burning cars with burning people in them. Policemen pull women and children mutilated beyond recognition from the rubble. Dogs that were once pets drag human limbs through the city. Prisoners were forced to strip by RU forces before being executed.

RU forces continue to move equipment through and out of Mariupol to other areas in the South.

Zaporizhia/Southern Axis (8):

UA forces continue to shell along the front lines with RU forces and accumulate supplies in at least 2 locations. This continues to cause concern for RU forces in the region, who fear an imminent UA assault. Per Igor Girkin, the situation is similar to what existed in the Balakliya region before the UA offensive there.

Two large explosions occurred in occupied Melitopol city today. UA claims partisan operations and ambulances moving to the scene, while RU claims to have detonated some quantity of weapons intentionally.

The IAEA moved to adopt a resolution demanding the withdrawal of Russian troops from the ZNPP, but China and Russia voted against the resolution.

Kherson (9):

RU continued to fire cruise missiles into Kryvi Rih today, and UA engineering crews worked throughout the day to lower the water level and flooding risk in the Inhulets. While resorting to blowing 2 intentional holes in the dam to divert water and other heavy engineering activities, the water level has begun to recede across the inhulets river itself. Some 110 houses were flooded and evacuated in Kryvi Rih proper.

Additionally, UA targeted 5 pontoon crossings near Darivka, Sadove, and Nova Kahkovka, as well as continuing to threaten the Nova Kahkovka dam bridge. The RU base near Nova Kahkovka has been heavily damaged by shelling as of late.

Starting from the W of Kherson and moving clockwise:

UA rejected claims about decisively taking Kyselivka today, stating that while RU forces are not fully in control, the town is a site of battles.

RU forces in Snihurivka along the W bank of the Inhulets continue to be struck by UA artillery.

UA troops in the Inhulets river crossing pocket appear to be making some progress clearing the riverbank on the E side, downstream of where they had crossed. This may serve to help with additional supply crossings. Ukrainian recon forces have advanced deeper along the side of the highway, closer deeper into RU lines, apparently reaching Charivne.

Further to the NE front, there are no apparent updates since UA forces took Vyskopillya. RU artillery fire seems to indicate the frontline here has not materially changed in the last few days. UA troops are believed to be skirmishing around Lyubymivka in the center of the NE line and assaulting the S of Vyskopillya with increasing deep UA artillery strikes behind Russian lines.

Blasts continue into Kherson city, with partisan operations and UA strikes continuing. Allegedly RU occupation-appointed police officers are asking for resignation en masse due to the "inability of management to ensure proper working conditions" about the UA offensive.

Odesa/Black Sea/Crimea(10):

Reportedly in the black sea, there are 3 ships and 1 submarine with approximately 28 missiles available for use, and stormy seas continue in the region.

The RU fleet fired a cruise missile towards Odesa, which was intercepted successfully by UA air defenses.

Per a senior member of the UA "Yellow Ribbon" resistance group, they have at least 1000 active members in Crimea. Their resistance is more of an information war, with passing along critical information to intelligence agencies in Ukraine.

Azerbaijan/Armenia:

The ceasefire in the Armenian/Azeri conflict appears to be broadly holding. Kazakhstan has officially denied the rumors they plan to leave the Russian-led CSTO defensive pact.

General:

Yesterday, Ukrainian forces eliminated:

• 200x soldiers (Total 53,850)
• 17x APC
• 13x tanks
• 5x Artillery (0x MLRS)
• 21x vehicles
• 4x Aircraft

The losses were most pronounced in the Kherson front on both its NW and NE fronts.

The first case of Monkeypox was identified in Ukraine today.

Reportedly Putin is concerned about a rising tide of alcoholism in the Russian military among its Officer corps and senior political figures. There has been a degradation in professionalism and discipline among elements of the RU army as a result. It was reported that 3 star general Dvornikov, who had been tasked to command the invasion back in April, was removed from command partially due to his lapse into alcoholism after he realized the scope of his task.

The US announced a $600 million USD package, including additional ammo for HIMARS, tens of thousands of conventional 105mm artillery rounds, 1,000 Excalibur 155mm rounds, and counter-drone systems. With winter coming, the US is also providing cold weather gear and more night vision devices. Per sources familiar with the aid, longer-range missiles such as ATACMS are not due to be included or considered at this time as "It’s our assessment that they don’t currently require ATACMS to service targets that are directly relevant to the current fight.” The concerns are apparently regarding escalation following deep strikes into Russia proper and that GMLRS missiles provided can range into most RU positions in occupied Ukraine.

The Pope today stated that supplying weaponry to Ukraine is morally acceptable for self-defense purposes. Francis also urged Kyiv to be open to eventual dialogue, even though it may be difficult for the Ukrainian side.

Since the war began, 8 million Ukrainians arrived in the EU. 5 million of them have already returned.

For the first time, the German government announced supplying 50 Dingo armored vehicles to Ukraine. Zelensky said that Ukraine is also waiting for several promised air defense systems from Germany, which they have not yet received.

US Ministry of Finance included the head of Chechnya, Ramzan Kadyrov, his family members, many Russian officials, and Volodymyr Rogov, a collaborator and "head" of the occupying Russian administration of part of the Zaporizhia region, on the list of persons under sanctions.

This was an adaptation of an original text: